Inflation

What causes inflation, how it's measured, and how the RBI is mandated to keep it in check.

πŸ“– What is inflation?

Inflation is a sustained rise in the general price level of goods and services, which reduces the purchasing power of money over time. It has two broad causes:

  • Demand-pull inflation β€” too much money chasing too few goods; demand outpaces supply.
  • Cost-push inflation β€” rising production costs (e.g. wages, raw materials, fuel) get passed on to consumers.

πŸ“ How inflation is measured

  • CPI (Consumer Price Index) β€” tracks retail prices of a basket of goods and services consumers actually pay; this is the index RBI uses for inflation targeting.
  • WPI (Wholesale Price Index) β€” tracks prices at the wholesale/producer level, before retail markup; doesn't include services.

🎯 RBI's inflation-targeting framework

Since 2016, India formally follows a flexible inflation-targeting regime: the RBI is mandated to keep CPI inflation at 4%, within a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. If inflation stays outside this band for three consecutive quarters, the RBI is required to explain the failure to the government and outline corrective steps.

πŸ’‘ Key Facts

  • RBI's inflation target is CPI at 4%, within a 2-6% band, since 2016.
  • CPI is used for inflation targeting; WPI does not include services and reflects wholesale prices.
  • Demand-pull inflation = excess demand; cost-push inflation = rising production costs.
  • If CPI inflation misses the target band for 3 consecutive quarters, RBI must explain this to the government.

πŸ”– 60-Second Revision

  • Inflation = sustained rise in general price level.
  • Demand-pull (too much demand) vs cost-push (rising costs).
  • CPI (retail, used for targeting) vs WPI (wholesale, no services).
  • RBI target: CPI 4%, band 2-6%, since 2016; must explain 3-quarter misses to govt.

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